JRF Budget day analysis projects household incomes to fall by £450 over the parliament

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) published analysis on 29 October 2026 finding that average annual household disposable incomes are projected to fall by £450 over the course of the current parliament after adjusting for inflation, from April 2024 to April 2029¹. The charity said the result is broadly in line with its previous projections, which were based on the Bank of England's central scenario from July¹.

JRF said that if incomes had grown in line with the average for the period from 1961 to the pandemic, households would have been on course to be around £5,000 better off in 2029 than they were in 2024¹. The analysis projects a decrease of 1% to incomes after housing costs on average by the end of the parliament, which JRF attributes in part to projected weak real earnings growth and rising housing costs¹. It also finds the hit to living standards will affect households across the income spectrum, though JRF says any income hit is harder to bear for households on the lowest incomes¹.

The projections use the OBR's latest forecasts on indicators including CPI inflation, earnings and interest rates, together with the impact of policies announced at the Budget. These are fed into the IPPR Tax-Benefit Model (version v03_00), which uses the Family Resources Survey (2024/25) to project household incomes for each year to the end of the parliament, with all projected income and expenditure converted into Q3 2026 prices¹.

JRF said support for energy costs announced in the Budget does not fully address the hit to incomes from rising energy prices, and cited energy bills set to rise by close to £500 in January¹.

JRF said the Budget measures would help families this winter but that without fundamental reform this would still represent the worst parliament on record for living standards¹. The charity called for interventions including a permanent return to annual uplifts of Local Housing Allowance paired with a rent control, an Affordable Energy Guarantee, and a Protected Minimum Floor in Universal Credit¹.

Why it matters for households

The £450 figure is an average across households, after inflation, and covers the whole parliament rather than a single year¹. JRF projects the reduction in incomes after housing costs at 1% on average by April 2029, with the effect spread across the income spectrum but harder to absorb at the bottom¹. The projection incorporates policies announced at the Budget, so the Budget measures are already reflected in the £450 estimate rather than offsetting it¹. The separate energy figure, bills rising by close to £500 in January, is a cost pressure JRF says winter support does not fully cover¹. How inflation is experienced differs by household type; the Household Costs Index sets out that variation, and projected incomes for each nation are covered in household incomes across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Wider context on prices, rates and household costs sits in the rates and economy hub.

What happens next

The projections run to April 2029, the end of the current parliament¹. JRF's figures rest on OBR forecasts and will change as those forecasts are revised; the analysis states it is broadly in line with JRF's July projections based on the Bank of England's central scenario¹. No further update date has been reported.